January 18-24, 2005
Midwest Weekly Highlights - January 18-24, 2005
Rivers Recede as Snow Flies
During the week of January 18-24, the Midwest was generally cut off from Gulf moisture by a
strong upper level trough that directed storm systems into the region from the Canadian Rockies.
Therefore, the southwestern portion of the region was very dry, while the northern and eastern
portions of the region were visited by four separate low pressure centers that brought a total of
0.5 - 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation (Figure 1). The largest positive departures were
located in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which received more than 200% of normal for the week (Figure 2). Almost all this precipitation fell as snow this week, leading to substantial snow totals
over wide areas (Figure 3), including places in Minnesota that were experiencing large deficits
during the first half of the snow season. Since the ridge of the upper level pattern was over the
Rockies, the western part of the Midwest was normal to slightly above normal in temperature,
while the eastern Midwest under the upper level trough was more than 10°F below normal for the
week (Figure 4). While three of the lows were simple clipper systems with little moisture, there
was one dynamically strong system that brought with it ample moisture for a major snowstorm
from Minneapolis through Chicago to Detroit.
Major Snowstorm Rocks the Midwest
Two clipper systems passed along the upper level trough over the Midwest (Figure 5, College of
DuPage - COD), one on the 18th and another on the 20th. The snow was especially pronounced
in northern Minnesota during this period, although some snow fell in most of the northern
Midwest. On the 21st, the trough reached its southern most extent just as a very strong low
pressure center began to follow the jet stream into the region near the Minnesota-Iowa border
(Figure 6, COD). This system moved southeasterly at first, but then flattened out and took a
more easterly tack near Chicago. The sequence of storm motion can be seen in a series of radar
summaries at about 3:00 PM (Figure 7a, COD) and 7:30 PM (Figure 7b, COD) on the 21st, and
about 10:15 AM (Figure 7c, COD) on the 22nd (all times are CST). Snow rates were prodigious,
more than an inch an hour under the main storm, so that despite crossing the Midwest in less than
24 hours, heavy snow still resulted (Figure 8). In addition, a tremendous pressure gradient was
left between the rapidly deepening low and incoming high pressure center from Canada (Figure 9,
COD), inducing winds of 30-50 mph over a wide swath of the Midwest (Figure 10, COD).
The high winds resulted in blizzard conditions in places, and blowing snow problems just about
everywhere the snow had fallen. Some blizzard warnings were issued (deep red counties), but
most of the northern Midwest received a winter storm warning (faded red counties in Figure 11,
Storm Prediction Center - SPC). This storm went on to become the memorable Blizzard of 2005
in the northeastern U.S. on the 23rd. However, in the Midwest, the period ended pretty calmly,
with a dominate high pressure center clearing the skies over the central Midwest. Many of the
forest-to-field transitions and river systems are easily seen against a snowy back drop in visible
satellite imagery (Figure 12, University Center for Atmospheric Research - UCAR). Due to most
of the precipitation missing the flooding areas, few rivers remained above all-time record levels
for the day of year (black dots in Figure 13, U.S. Geological Survey - USGS), with the exception
of ice jammed rivers in central lower Michigan. The fourth and final low of the week passed by
north of the Midwest on the 24th, leading to some additional snowfall in the Canadian border
region.
Snow Storm Impacts
The snow storm on the 21st and 22nd had substantial impacts on the Midwest, even though it will be most famously known as the Blizzard of 2005 in the Northeast. In fact, many of the first Midwesterners to experience the storm in Minnesota were quite pleased to finally have some seasonable snow for winter recreation (several newspaper sources emphasized this point). For example, a student on the Como Park High School nordic ski team was quoted as saying "...I'm happy the drought is over and the snow is finally here...". However, the six inches of snow in Minneapolis / St. Paul were probably not as pleasing to the owners of the 9,652 cars ticketed and 2,357 cars towed along city snow emergency routes. Rochester (8.5 inches), Duluth (7.6 inches), and International Falls, MN (5.0 inches) set new one day snow fall records for the 21st, and there were many flight cancellations and road accidents. Northern and northeastern Iowa received considerable snow, but also had some of the highest winds following the snow, with wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph creating drifts and causing white outs. One person was killed on I-80 when blowing snow obscured his visibility, and he drove into the back of a semi. A 64 mph gust was measured in Grundy Corner, IA. About 5,200 lost power in northern Iowa, and 4,000 lost power in southwestern Minnesota, due to the effects of the winds after storm passage.
The storm proceeded into Wisconsin and Illinois, burying the Milwaukee and Chicago area in over a foot of snow. O'Hare International Airport in Chicago recorded 11.2 inches of snow, bringing the January total to 24.6 inches, 4th snowiest on record. The Midway cooperative observer recorded 12.9 inches of snow closer to downtown Chicago, and Wrigleyville recorded 15 inches. More than 1,100 flights were cancelled on the 21st, and over a hundred more were cancelled on the 22nd due to closed airports in the eastern U.S. On its way to a storm total of 13 inches, Milwaukee recorded a daily record of 9.0 inches. Two people were killed in a weather related accident on I-94, when a vehicle rear-ended a snow plow in bad visibility. In another incident in Wisconsin, a person was found who died from exposure. No storm related deaths were reported in Illinois.
The storm continued due easterly from here, and pummeled much of Michigan and northern
Indiana and Ohio with more heavy snow. New daily records were set in Detroit (12.2 inches),
Lansing (12.6 inches), Grand Rapids (12.3 inches), and Alpena, MI (7.8 inches), and in South
Bend, IN (6.8 inches). Detroit is already up to 26.9 inches for January, the third snowiest to date.
Ironically, the Motown Winter Blast festival in Detroit had to delay its opening for 3 hours to
clear snow. A snowmobiler moving down a city street in South Bend, IN, was killed by a snow
plow that was backing into the road under conditions of poor visibility. In Ohio, two people died
of heart attacks while removing snow, and one person walking on ice over a flooded park broke
through and fell through the gap between the ice and receding water, and drowned. The cooling
after the snow caused ice jams to form along the St. Joseph River in northern Indiana, and along
the Grand River in southern Michigan. The Grand River jam flooded more than 50 residences
and buildings in Robinson Township, destroying 13 residences and severely damaging 19 other
buildings. The ice jam is now up to 18 miles long, and flooding may threaten some larger
population centers.
Disaster and Emergency Declarations in Indiana and Ohio
One of the original sources of moisture for the floods in the Midwest was the intense snow fall of December 23-24, 2004 (Figure 14, NWS). Snow fall amounts ranged from 12-24 inches in a core region stretching from southern Illinois to northern Ohio. The snow storm itself was the subject of Snow Emergency Declarations by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). These declarations were originally issue on January 11, and have been expanded several times to include 50 counties in Indiana (Figure 15a, FEMA), and 26 counties in Ohio (Figure 15b, FEMA). While no figures are available for Indiana, the Ohio Insurance Institute estimates that more 27,000 claims totaling more than $85 M in damages have been filed due to residential, business and vehicle losses.
Despite the direct damage of the December snow storm, it may be best remembered as the starting point for the floods in January 2005. The Ohio flood damage is being assessed presently in the 59 counties that remained under a state of emergency declared by Ohio Governor Bob Taft, and the determination of a federal disaster declaration is anticipated. One ominous statistic indicates that about half of the 9,000 residents flooded in the Marietta, OH, area during the September 2004 floods in southeastern Ohio were also affected by the January 2005 floods. About 3,300 voluntarily evacuated the town of Bolivar, and thousands of others were affected in Marietta and Cambridge. The Ohio Insurance Institute reported 14,800 claims were filed in Ohio for the January 2005 storms, totaling $38 M in insured losses as of January 24. However, these claims do not include house and business flooding.
The initial federal surveys in Indiana have been completed, and a federal major disaster declaration was issued for 62 counties on January 21. This disaster declaration included the impacts of the heavy ice storm that devastated parts of northern and eastern Indiana, and flooding throughout the state. At the time of the submission, 128 homes had been destroyed, 294 homes suffered major damage, and 678 suffered minor damage in floods. Considerable levee leaking and several small failures of the levees may lead to more flooding before the water is back within the banks along the lower Wabash River in southern Indiana. A high resolution image of the flooding along the lower Wabash and Ohio indicates that the rivers were still 3-5 miles wide in places on the 21st (Figure 16, NASA MODIS Group). The situation is being carefully monitored, but has greatly benefitted from the recent dry period.