January 11-17, 2005
Midwest Weekly Highlights - January 11-17, 2005
Another Large Rain Event Worsens Major River Flooding
Early during the week of January 11-17, another in a series of substantial storms deposited 2-4
inches of rain over the zone of flooding rivers in the Midwest. Fortunately, this was also the last
in the series of storms, so the weekly precipitation total is very similar to the total for January 11-13. The band of heaviest rain extended from southern Missouri through most of Illinois, Indiana,
and Ohio (Figure 1). For the second week in a row, precipitation amounts exceeded 700% of
normal in that area (Figure 2), while elsewhere to the north, only 25% of normal precipitation fell
in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Unlike the precipitation event last week, the moisture
did not penetrate far into the cold sector, so there was only a small area of 2-4 inch snows trailing
this system in the central Midwest. However, there was a heavy lake effect snow fall on the west
coast of Lake Superior due to strong easterlies during the storm (Figure 3). There was also a
light snow event on the 16th from eastern Missouri to Ohio. The normally snowy eastern Upper
Penninsula and western coast of Lower Michigan did not have much snow during the period.
Temperatures in the region became colder after the storm of the 11th to 13th, but since the first
few days were so warm during the period, the southeastern half of the Midwest was still 6-9°F
above normal for the week of January 11-17, while the northwest portion of the Midwest reached
more than 12°F below normal (Figure 4). Finally, the lack of precipitation in the far western
Midwest continued in northwestern Missouri and western Iowa, where an existing area of D0
was converted to D1, moderate drought, on the U.S. Drought Monitor (Figure 5). There is some
concern about soil moisture for row crops and groundwater supplies for livestock if the dryness
there lasts into the spring.
Flash Floods, Severe Weather Accompany Rain Storm
Precipitation started on the 11th, with moisture overrunning the frontal boundary marked by an elongated trough of low pressure (Figure 6, College of DuPage - COD). As warm, humid air returned northward, heavy fog developed from Iowa to southern Michigan (the indicator "F" in Figure 7, COD). The fog on the morning of the 12th resulted in a 20 car pile-up on the Indiana Toll Road east of South Bend, IN, including one fatality, and multiple accidents on I-96 east of Lansing, MI. One of the major incidents in Michigan involved a 50-vehicle chain reaction that left 37 people injured, 3 critically, and resulted in 2 fatalities. Overall, as many as 194 vehicles crashed in the multiple accidents along I-96, including about 75 semis. Many other traffic accidents and airport delays were noted across the central latitudes of the Midwest.
By the morning of the 12th, the National Weather Service (NWS) had issued flood watches (green) and winter weather advisories (yellow) over most of the Midwest (Figure 8, Storm Prediction Center - SPC). A very strong low pressure center rushed from the Rockies to Lake Superior in just one day (Figure 9, COD), trailing behind a cold front and a second low far to the southwest. A strong upper level trough with a jet stream exceeding 150 knots moved over the western Midwest (Figure 10, COD), providing the support for the development of strong thunderstorms along the advancing cold front. The storms along the front extended all the way from Texas to northern Michigan (Figure 11, COD). Multiple severe weather watch boxes were issued by the Storm Prediction Center, along with actual severe thunderstorm warnings (blue dots in (Figure 12, SPC). The Missouri and Illinois sectors of the line were especially active (Figure 13, COD), leading to confirmed reports of four tornadoes in Missouri, along with a dozen each severe wind and hail reports over Missouri and Illinois, and even one hail report in Michigan (Figure 14, SPC). Fortunately, no one was killed by the unseasonable severe weather outbreak in the Midwest, but there were two deaths in Arkansas. The precipitation that fell with the frontal system pushed St. Louis to a month-to-date total of 8.61 inches, breaking the all time January monthly precipitation record on the 13th, with another 18 days to go in the month.
A great deal of precipitation had fallen in central Illinois (Figure 15a, NWS) and central Indiana
(Figure 15b, NWS) prior to the storms overnight on January 12-13. However, by the time the storms
passed, the accumulated precipitation for the three day period was truly prodigious in Illinois
(Figure 16, NWS), and similar totals were found in central Indiana (not shown). The forecast for
river flooding reached is peak areal extent in the Midwest at this time (Figure 17, Hydrological
Prediction Center). Many rivers were in moderate or major flood stage (orange and red dots in Figure 18, NWS) by the 14th, and flooding will continue along the largest rivers (Mississippi,
Ohio, Wabash, White, Illinois) through the end of the month. At the same time, many other
rivers in the region were running at record high levels for the time of year (black dots in Figure 19, USGS). Most flooding rivers crested between the 14th and the 20th, although the flood peak
was still moving down the lower Ohio and into the Mississippi through the 20th.
Cold Snap
Record warm temperatures were recorded in the Midwest prior to the frontal passage at a number of locations, including West Plains, MO (67°F) and Paducah, KY (59°F) on the 11th; Lincoln, IL (65°F), Chicago-O’Hare, IL (62°F - tie), Fort Wayne, IN (61°F), Grand Rapids, MI (55°F), Mukegon, MI (54°F), Alpena, MI (49°F), Houghton Lake, MI (47°F), Traverse City, MI (49°F), Gaylord MI (45°F), Youngstown, OH (60°F), Mansfield, OH (61°F), and Jackson, KY (69°F), on the 12th; and Flint, MI (58°F) and Columbus (69°F), Akron (68°F), Youngstown (68°F), and Mansfield, OH (65°F) on the 13th. An example of the scale and distribution of the warm temperatures can be seen on a map of the daily high temperatures for the 12th (Figure 20, Unisys). After the frontal passage on the 13th, temperatures fell sharply, especially in the northern Midwest. High temperatures on the 14th remained below zero throughout Minnesota and in most of Wisconsin and Iowa (Figure 21, Unisys). Both Duluth and International Falls, MN, stayed below 0°F for more than 6 days, beginning on the 13th and extending to the 19th. The coldest morning of the period was on the 17th, when a large portion of the upper Midwest was in the double digits below zero range (Figure 22, Unisys). The cold spot of the region was Embarrass, MN, which recorded a low temperature of -54°F. More than 20 locations in Minnesota and Wisconsin recorded low temperatures of less than -30°F on the 17th. Finally, a clipper system came through the region on the 16th and 17th, dropping snow through the central Midwest, but also beginning a change towards warmer conditions, at least in the southern portion of the region.