September 1-9, 2003
Midwest Weekly Highlights - September 1-9, 2003
Drought and Flood in the Midwest
The Labor Day Weekend deluge continued into the start of the September 1-9 period, and is partially reflected in the precipitation total for that time (Figure 1). Widespread precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches along a band from central Missouri to Ohio were punctuated by maxima of over 7 inches in central Indiana. Precipitation values exceeded 500% of normal in much of central Indiana and Kentucky, while to the north virtually no rain fell in most of central Minnesota and Wisconsin (Figure 2). This northern dry area was also 3-6°F above normal for the period, while the wet band through Missouri and Illinois was 3-6°F below normal for the period (Figure 3). The lack of rain in far northwestern Missouri, northwestern Illinois, central Michigan, and almost all of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin resulted in intensification of drought in these areas, while drought was relieved in the southwestern and central Midwest (Figure 4, Climate Prediction Center). Unfortunately, many of these locations received rain too late to improve crop status, although the decline in crop quality was arrested. The heavy rain was relegated to the southern edge of the region by September 2 and vacated the region after September 3, leaving the entire Midwest virtually rain free from the 4th to the 9th (Figure 5).
Drought Intensification
Over the 60-day period from July 12 to September 9, less than 3 inches of precipitation fell over Minnesota, Iowa, and much of Wisconsin (Figure 6a). These values were a full 4 to 7 inches below normal for the relatively short two month period (Figure 6b). Most of Missouri was similarly dry for the same period until the Labor Day rains. While this precipitation was beneficial for soil recharge, it came too late to ameliorate the devastating crop damage. Even in locations near Kansas City, MO, that received more than 9 inches of rain, local streams like the Blue River quickly rose and then fell back to below normal levels (Figure 7, USGS), indicating that much of the rain was absorbed into the ground. Further north in Missouri, soil moisture levels continued to be very dry (Figure 8), and much of northwestern Missouri remained in a Phase 3 drought, requiring local water conservation (Figure 9, State of Missouri).
Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin received no relief in the Labor Day rains, and so continued to decline in soil moisture and agricultural ratings. These states reached their lowest pasture quality ratings since the digital form of the records started in 1995. Soil moisture ratings improved to only 33% short/very short in Missouri, although the extremely dry northwestern part of the state missed the heavier rains. Illinois also improved to only 30% short/very short topsoil moisture. However, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin had topsoil moisture ratings of more than 90% short/very short (Figure 10, USDA), and many streams running below the 25th percentile level (orange and red dots in (Figure 11, USGS). The Des Moines River north of I-80 has not been this low in many years (Figure 12, courtesy of Dr. Kenneth Dewey, High Plains Regional Climate Center).
Soybean crops were heading into the leaf dropping phase and corn into the maturing phase throughout the region in the September 6 crop survey reports publish by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Some of the drier states, such as Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri, were ahead of the 5-year average for either or both plant stages, even after having been behind earlier in the year. Unfortunately, this was due to the premature end of the soybean and corn life cycles by the severe drought conditions. Most crops in the eastern Midwest were still behind normal progress, but catching up, except in overly wet Indiana. Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin bean quality ratings were 19% to 26% good/excellent, and 34-53% poor/very poor. Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin corn quality ratings were 20% to 29% good/excellent, and 36-55% poor/very poor. The eastern Midwest was doing considerably better from central Illinois eastward, with 59-82% good/excellent soybean ratings in these states, and 61-70% good/excellent corn ratings. The MRCC median yield model projection for corn in the Midwest dropped 5 bu/acre since the August 11 model run. In the four week period since August 11, the MRCC median projection for Iowa declined 12 bu/acre, Wisconsin declined 11 bu/acre, Minnesota declined 7 bu/acre, and Nebraska declined 5 bu/acre.
The Drought of 2003 had turned into a major weather-related disaster in the Midwest. The first estimates of losses were beginning to reach the public media, and the situation is not good. The USDA Farm Service Agency estimated crop losses in Minnesota alone to amount to $1.1 B. County by county surveys were being conducted in a number of states in early September for the purpose of making agricultural disaster declarations. More news on this front should be available in the next weekly report.
Labor Day Weekend Deluge, August 30 to September 3
During the 5-day period from August 30 to September 3, more than 5 inches of rain fell along a swath from Kansas to western Ohio (Figure 13). The rain in the eastern part of this band was discussed in the last Weekly Summary for August. Flooding along I-35 in Kansas claimed 6 lives, and one life was lost in the western suburbs of Kansas City, MO. However, river levels fell quickly after the rain ended in the areas that formerly had severe to extreme drought, indicating much of the rain soaked into the ground. Heavy precipitation continued in the central and eastern Midwest from September 1 to 3, and brought about severe flooding in Indiana, and moderate flooding in Ohio and Kentucky. Since much of central Indiana was still saturated from the previous flooding rains in July 2003, the heavy and intense rainfall had no place to go except into streams and rivers. Indianapolis was at the center of the affected region (Figure 14, NWS), and on September 1 set a new one-day precipitation record for all days of the year of 7.20 inches. This is the largest amount of precipitation recorded in a single day in Indianapolis since records became available 108 years ago. Some of the thunderstorm cells were fairly strong (Figure 15, NWS), so rain rates were larger at times. The two one hour periods with the largest amount of rain recorded were 1.19 inches between 3 and 4 AM local time and 1.26 inches between 1 and 2 PM local time. After the September 1 rains were accounted for, Indianapolis was already at its 8th wettest September of all time, with 29 days remaining in the month.
Streams and rivers rose rapidly as the rain fell on September 1, and caused flooding in low lying areas. By September 2, many streams, small and large, were reporting the highest levels in recorded history for that day of the year (Figure 16, USGS). Both small streams (Figure 17, USGS) and large rivers (Figure 18, USGS) rose rapidly on September 1, and the flood wave proceeded down the White River and Wabash Rivers into southern Indiana. Muncie, Indiana, had the highest levels on the White River since the floods of April 1964 (Figure 19, USGS), and some locations in the counties south of Indianapolis had their highest river stages since the flood of record in March 1913 (Figure 20, USGS).
Despite the large amount of rain, only one person died of causes directly related to the floods. After a rescue effort that went on for hours, a motorist died after being swept away from her flooded pick-up truck; two other women were saved from their vehicle by rescue crews. National Guard troops were mobilized to guard property and transport more than 300,000 sand bags to protect areas from levee overtopping, and to secure unprotected but critical facilities such as water and sewer plants. Large parts of Waverly and Mooresville were flooded along the White River, and hundreds were evacuated from their homes. About 300-400 million gallons of sewage could not be fully treated in Indianapolis due to storm drains funneling street water into the system. Finally, economic activity was down considerably at fairs and outdoor recreation facilities such as golf course and water parks that are usually very busy on Labor Day weekend, even in areas away from flooding. Many Labor Day parades and organized picnics were also cancelled. Schools were cancelled in many places for the day or two after Labor Day due to impassible roads.
The governor of Indiana declared a state of emergency, which was quickly followed by a federal disaster declaration on September 5 (Figure 21, FEMA). This disaster declaration area is a subset of the same area declared a disaster in July 2003 due to widespread flooding (Figure 22, FEMA). More than $30 M has been distributed as relief aid for the first disaster, and over $1 M has been released for the second disaster in just the first few days of the filing period. More than 1700 people have started the filing process to date. At least 400 homes and businesses with flood damage exceeding $4.2 M have been identified in Indianapolis alone.