Midwest Overview - February 15-21, 2003

A very strong winter storm arrived south of the Midwest at the beginning of the February 15-21 period, eventually becoming the famous snowstorm that affected the U.S. East Coast. While it was larger and stronger in its effects in the East, the storm left a legacy of strong impacts in the Midwest. Most of the precipitation during the week was associated with the storm, with substantial amounts falling all along its path and more than 4 inches of precipitation falling in eastern Kentucky (Figure 1). Above normal amounts of precipitation affected dry areas in western Iowa and northeastern Missouri, but were largely restricted to locations that are not presently in drought (Figure 1a). The dry areas that did receive precipitation experienced most of it in the form of snow fall, with a band of 5-10 inches totals stretching from western Iowa to eastern Ohio just north of the storm track (Figure 2). Temperatures were only a bit below normal in many of the snow free areas of the Midwest, while the areas with new snow were 4-8°F below normal for the week (Figure 3). Drought status was relieved only in western Iowa, which was reduced one category in the U.S. Drought Monitor (Figure 4, National Drought Mitigation Center). The Climate Prediction Center released its latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook product on the 20th, which indicates that the dryness in the Midwest may not only persist through the spring, but also expand in spatial extent (Figure 5, CPC).

The storm that impacted the region from February 14-17 had three major characteristics: (1) widespread snow blown by very strong winds; (2) substantial icing, especially in and around Lexington, KY; and (3) heavy rain in Kentucky, especially the eastern half of the state. By 9 PM on the 14th, a long band of snow extended from Nebraska to Ohio (Figure 6, UIUC Dept of Atmospheric Science). The precipitation over Kentucky consisted of heavy rain at this point. Rain fell all the next day in Kentucky, causing widespread flash flooding and some stream and river flooding. However, by 6 PM on the 15th, cold air started to flow into Kentucky at the surface, even though it was still warm enough aloft to support rain (Figure 7, UIUC DAS). At the same time, the dynamics of the system also increased the precipitation rate, so that by midnight on the 16th, moderate freezing rain was still falling in northern and central Kentucky (Figure 8, UIUC DAS). The low pressure area to the south of Kentucky (Figure 9a) caused a strong southerly flow (Figure 9b) of moist, warm air to ride over the front and move upward (Figure 9c). The air temperature was warmer aloft (Figure 9d) than nearer the ground (Figure 9e), yielding the classic situation for sustained freezing rain. Reports of 1-2 inches of freezing rain deposition in southern Ohio and central and northeastern Kentucky were not uncommon (Figure 10, Jackson KY NWS). Further south and east, rain continued to fall leading to flooding along the Kentucky River (Figure 11, USGS) and Cumberland River (Figure 12, USGS) and many smaller streams and tributaries.

The impacts of the ice storm in the Lexington area were devastating. Extensive tree damage occurred throughout the region, and the city of Lexington and its environs lost power to 115,000 customers served by Kentucky Utilities. Many of these customers did not have power for several days. About 500 people sought shelter in warming centers at the peak of the aftermath. There were still 10,000 customers without power one week later, even though more than 500 utility poles had been replaced and 1700 workers were servicing downed lines. A total of 43 building fires took place due to electrical problems or alternate heating sources getting out of control. In Ohio, three counties along the Ohio River were declared state disaster areas due to ice downing trees and powerlines. About 62,000 customers of American Electric Power lost service in southern Ohio due to the ice storm. Central Ohio was impared by 12-16 inches of blowing snow that blocked roads for more than a day in places.

More than 190 miles of Kentucky state roads were under water during the week of February 15-21, and their repair status is not yet known. Thousands of residents had to leave homes under the threat of flooding. The governor of Kentucky declared a state of emergency in the affected areas as a first step in applying for federal disaster relief. An incomplete ice storm and flood damage estimate for only 20 counties in Kentucky had reached $49.6 M by February 20. In addition, the unusually cold and snowy winter has caused Kentucky to spend $21.4 M for road clearing, $4.4 M above recent averages without even including the remainder of winter. To compound the financial toll, a noteworthy decline in purchases was felt by the retail sector as people could not leave home during the key President's Day shopping weekend. While some of this anticipated spending is only deferred until later, some sales-inspired spending will be lost. Finally, the fatalities attributed to the winter storm in the Midwest included 6 in Missouri, 4 in Iowa, 2 in Illinois, 2 in Ohio, and 2 in Kentucky. Most died in car accidents, but one person in Ohio died of hypothermia, and one person in Kentucky died from injuries sustained in an ice-weighted tree fall. More than 35 people were treated in the Lexington area alone for carbon monoxide poisoning. As the storm traveled east, thousands of travelers who could not go to the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast were stranded at Midwestern airports.