Midwest Overview - January 22-31, 2003

The anomalous cold in the Midwest intensified during the period of January 22-31, and some areas suffering from a snow drought actually received above normal amounts of snow for the 10-day period. The precipitation totals for the region were still light in most areas of the Midwest, less than half an inch (Figure 1), but northern Iowa and southern Minnesota received more precipitation than normal during the period (Figure 1a). However, this is not a large amount given the season. Some of the lake effect belts also had substantial levels of snow, especially south of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, and Lake Erie (Figure 2). Most precipitation during the period fell as snow due to the colder than normal temperatures dominating the region. Temperatures were as warm as only 3°F below normal in the northwestern part of the region, but much of the eastern portion of the Midwest was more than 10°F below normal for the ten-day period (Figure 3). While cold temperatures were the big story during this period, drought continued to slowly intensify in a band across the central Midwest (Figure 4, National Drought Mitigation Center). A light snow cover was in place over most of the Midwest at the end of the month, reducing soil moisture loss and intensifying radiative energy loss at night (Figure 4a).

The cold wave during the period came in a one-two punch, with tremendous media interest in the first cold snap on January 23-24 (Figure 5) and the reinforcing shot of cold air on January 27 (Figure 6) that followed an intervening snow fall. Two people died of hypothermia in the first cold snap, one in Indianapolis and one in Detroit. Many cities put into effect emergency regulations allowing homeless shelters to accept people beyond their normal limits, and most states had some school systems closed or opening late to protect children from extreme cold. Chicago has a proactive system for helping people whose heating systems were out and getting them to safe shelters. They also tried to convince homeless persons to come to shelters, even giving them rides. Still, the Cook County coroner reported that the total of hypothermia deaths for the entire winter had reached 18 by January 20. The cold on the 23rd caused a portion of a Kansas City bridge deck to buckle, closing the highway to 94,000 daily commuters. The AAA was overwhelmed with calls for service at nearly three times the normal rate in Ohio. By the time the coldest conditions occurred on the 27th, the press was less active in reporting, perhaps due to people becoming accustomed to the cold by then. Low temperature records were set in Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky on the morning of the 27th, with one of the coldest readings at Crawfordsville, IN, of -25°F. Many locations in the Midwest had their coldest temperatures since January 1997. The morning of the 27th had an ideal situation for radiative cooling, with clear skies, low dew points, and a fresh snow pack on the ground. The home heating costs for January will prove to be very high for many, due to increased usage and higher per unit prices. This will be especially true in comparison to the warm conditions of last year; for example, the use of natural gas during this month in eastern Ohio was 30% more than last January, with three cold days left in the month.

Drought conditions continued in most of the Midwest during the last ten days of January. Both Minneapolis and Chicago had their first one inch plus snow falls in more than a month, which did not solve the recreational snow drought but did reenforce the cold air mass in place with stronger radiative cooling. The Mississippi River continued to have navigational difficulty, not only with low flows but also with the beginning of ice floe development. The Coast Guard estimated that barge operators are losing $1-2M a day due to the reduced barge capacity and delays necessitated by low water levels. Not only are loads lighter (about 17 tons per inch of draft required, with barges now running 24 inches higher than normal), but only 20 barges are allowed in one tow going downstream and 15 barges going in one tow going upstream, when 35 barges can normally be handled in both directions. In addition, in one stretch of the river near Cape Girardeau, an assist towboat is required where barges have been grounding. The barge operators have requested that the Army Corps of Engineers release water from dams along the Missouri River, but this has been done.