Midwest Overview - January 15-21, 2003

The week of January 15-21 was markedly cold in the Midwest for the time of year, and precipitation events yielded very little liquid water equivalent except near the Great Lakes. The precipitation totals were less than 0.25 inches over most of the region (Figure 1), with a large part of southern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin receiving no precipitation. Precipitation amounts for the week were generally below 50% of normal (Figure 1a). A large snow storm that was originally forecast to bring heavy snow on the 15th and 16th to much of the southern Midwest ended up bypassing further south and reducing the moisture flow into the region. Only the Kansas City area and far eastern Kentucky received the expected 4 to 8 inches of snow from this storm (Figure 2). However, due to the very cold conditions, the small event was sufficient to lay down a swath of snow that was still apparent in the snow cover measurements at the end of the period (Figure 2a). It is over this snow swath where temperatures in the region were the most below normal in temperature, with anomalies of -8°F to -12°F along this arc (Figure 3). Elsewhere in the Midwest, temperatures for the week were more commonly 4 to 8°F below normal. Some narrow bands in northern Indiana experienced 10-16 inches of lake effect snow, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan had some heavy snow, but most lake effect belts had no more than a moderate snow week.

The lack of snow and precipitation of any kind led to further intensification of drought in the Midwest (Figure 4, National Drought Mitigation Center). A reduction in normal soil moisture recharge can be inferred from the 90-day precipitation anomalies, which indicate less than 50% of normal precipitation over the entire northwestern half of the Midwest and less than 25% of normal in the previously moist southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin (Figure 5). The loss of recreational opportunities has been eased at ski resorts where snow-making machines can now operate in the cold air, but the lack of snow on overland routes has caused snowmobile riders to travel where they should not. More deaths were reported this week in Minnesota and Wisconsin from snowmobiles falling through thin ice on lakes. In addition, longstanding ice fishing competitions have had to change venues or else be canceled due to persistent weak or open spots in the ice. Ironically, some of these "black holes" are thought to be created by stronger than normal inflows of ground water into lakes due to the heavy summer precipitation that occurred before the current dry period. The Winter Carnival Giant Snow Slide at the Minneapolis/St. Paul Winter Carnival was cancelled due to a lack of snow, disappointing thousands.

The most important impact presently caused by the cold dry conditions in the Midwest is the tremendous reduction in discharge along the major rivers of the area, including the Mississippi. The river level at St. Louis reached -4.5 feet on the 15th, a level not seen since December 1989 and within 1.6 feet of the all-time record low flow set on January 16, 1940. Five separate barges grounded between St. Louis and Cairo, and two locations along the river near St. Genevieve and southern St. Louis county in Missouri were closed to all barge traffic. The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers released water from dams in the upper reaches of the Mississippi, refloating the barges and allowing for time to dredge some trouble spots. However, as can be seen in the January hydrograph (Figure 6, U.S. Geological Survey), the river rose 2.5 feet with the water release but has since declined 1.5 feet. The water stored upstream is insufficient to keep levels up for much longer. Even in its present state, the barges on the river can carry only partial loads, costing the barge industry $10 million a month presently. Boats that normally ride 10 feet deep in the water are now allowed to have only an 8 foot draft. In addition, the Casino Queen on the Illinois bank of the river had to shut down for two days, losing $800-900 thousand in the process. Other impacts noted by the media in the region include increases in fire wood sales and home heating energy costs in Wisconsin and elsewhere, especially in comparison between this normal temperature winter with a tighter gas supply and last winter's warm conditions and abundant gas supplies. These drought impacts are significant and costly, but it remains to be seen if recovery will occur in the spring or whether these impacts will be magnified by their effects on crops in the planting season.