Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies.

The month of January was the 5th warmest in the Midwest in 108 years, with many locations exceeding normal by 10°F in the northwestern Midwest (Figure 1). The period November 2001 through January 2002 was the warmest on record for the Midwest, by 0.1°F. Every state in the region ranked in the top three warmest November to January periods. Three states set new records by very large margins over the previous records: Minnesota (+2.3°F), Iowa (+2.2°F), and Wisconsin (+1.8°F). Many individual locations in these states exceeded the normal temperature for the 3 months by more than 10°F (Figure 2). Perhaps the greatest temperature record achieved occurred in Minneapolis, where the Twin Cities experienced the warmest November through January period in a climatological record extending back 180 years. January 2002 was also very dry until the last 3 days of the month, when a major winter storm brought rain, snow, and damaging ice to much of the region. Almost all the Midwest was well below 50% of normal precipitation through the 28th, except for Kentucky and southeastern Missouri (Figure 3). However, with the addition of the storm precipitation, the Midwest had only its 47th driest January. The storm missed the northwestern Midwest (Figure 4), so Wisconsin tied its 5th driest January, and Minnesota tied its 6th driest. Most places in the storm track and in the previously wet areas received near normal precipitation for the month (Figure 5). Snowfall was also light in most of the Midwest (Figure 6), with large negative departures in the normally snowy lake-effect belts in Michigan (Figure 7). Only the snow band north of the track of the late January storm received above normal snow amounts, in addition to the far southern portion of the Midwest. The zone of abnormal dryness in Missouri was eliminated by the storm, but abnormally dry areas in Iowa and Minnesota expanded considerably by the end of January (Figure 8).

Extreme Events and Impacts.

Severe Weather in Kentucky, January 24.
At the end of the January 18-24 period, a second strong low pressure center passed to the south of Ohio River. Heavy rain on the 23rd and 24th caused significant flash flooding in southeastern Missouri, southern Indiana, and most of Kentucky. The strong line of thunderstorms passing through the region (Figure 28, UIUC Dept of Atmospheric Science) also triggered severe weather in the area, and record daily precipitation totals in Paducah and Jackson, KY, on the 24th. Straight line winds in Livingston County, KY, blew 2 mobile homes off their foundations, and an F2 tornado hit Calhoun, KY, destroying 1 home and 1 business; severely damaging 5 other homes, several businesses and a church; and causing widespread minor damage. The damage was estimated to exceed $1 M.

Record Warmth in January.
Near the end of January, a final heat wave pushed the generally warm winter into the front pages. Numerous newspapers from Kansas City to Detroit had stories on the effects of the abnormally mild winter. The cost of heating with natural gas greatly decreased, as usage declined and unit prices fell. Wholesale prices for natural gas in the Midwest declined to $2.15 per 1000 cubic feet, down from more than $10.00 in January 2001. Unfortunately, many utilities had locked in higher prices for most of their natural gas through pre-purchasing agreements, in response to forecasts of a cooler than normal winter this year and concern about supplies tightening like last year. Therefore, many utilities were not able to lower prices to consumers as much as the wholesale price drop would indicate, but the overall expenditure on energy was greatly decreased for the Midwest. Many other benefits accrued to the region, including a substantial reduction in flu cases and other cold weather ailments, a reduction in weather-related automobile accidents, and reduced transportation and road maintenance costs for states and cities. On the farms, livestock losses were reduced. A number of non-seasonal recreational activities, such as golf, were available on warm days. Finally, there is likely to be a greatly reduced chance of spring flooding due to rapid snow melt in the Red River Basin and Upper Mississippi Basin.

The warm weather did have some drawbacks for sensitive economic sectors in the Midwest. In Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Minneapolis, many of the great winter recreational activities were disrupted over wide areas, including snowmobiling and ice fishing. Winter festivals in a number of places were redesigned to make due with snow trucked in from other places, including those in Minneapolis and Des Moines. Most ski areas remained open, but did not have as many customers this year, according to press reports. A number of cities were having difficulties finding places to store all their road salt when their mid-winter resupply shipments arrived. Gas suppliers and utilities sold less product and made less money. Some plants prematurely came out of dormancy, affecting decorative flowers as well as fruit trees and some winter wheat. The northwestern Midwest soils were drying considerably due to the lack of snow cover and will not recharge adequately without above normal spring precipitation. The Great Lakes have undergone the most rapid fall to low levels in their history, which will result in considerable increases in shipping costs and substantial impacts on lake shore recreation and environments.

Temperature records were set somewhere in the Midwest on each of the days from January 25 to January 28, and on January 31. A total of 59 daily temperature maximum records fell at first order stations during the period: 3 on the 25th, 20 on the 26th, 21 on the 27th, 12 on the 28th, and 3 on the 31st. Most of the records on the 26th and 27th were set in the western and northern Midwest, while most of the records on the 28th and 31st were set in the eastern Midwest. Very warm air moved into the region on the southeast side of the major winter storm that passed through the area at the end of the period. La Crosse, Wisconsin, experienced its longest period ever into winter without having a sub-zero minimum temperature, and also set records for the most consecutive days in January (3) and most total days in January (5) with maximums above 50°F.

Major Winter Storm and Icing Damage, January 29-31.
Just as it appeared that winter was gone forever, the only major winter storm of the year arrived in the southwestern sector of the Midwest on January 29. The week front that chased record temperatures southward had stalled near the Ohio Valley, providing a pathway for an upper level disturbance to follow between warm and cold air. With upper level support, a strong low pressure center developed and moved through the region from Missouri to Michigan. In most of the region south of the front, heavy rain wiped out a dry January, bringing many place up to and exceeding the monthly normal precipitation total in just a day or two (Figure 29). To the north of the front, one of the biggest snow storms of the year occurred, leaving 8-12 inches of snow in a band crossing the entire Midwest, including the cities of Des Moines, Chicago, and Detroit (Figure 30). However, the most critical impacts were felt in a zone 50-100 miles wide in between the heavy rain and heavy snow, where 0.5 to 1.5 inches of freezing rain was deposited as ice. At least 16 people died in the 9-state Midwestern Region as a result of the storm, in automobile accidents (8), snow removal heart attack (4), carbon monoxide poisoning (1), tree branch fall (1), slip and fall on ice (1), and drowned in flood water (1). Power losses exceeded 900,000 customers in the Midwest alone, including 350,000 customers in Missouri (mostly in the Kansas City area), 36,000 in Illinois, 93,000 in Indiana, 106,000 in Ohio, and 320,000 in Michigan.

In the Kansas City area, damage estimates to public infrastructure have reached tens of millions of dollars. The two largest cities affected, Kansas City and Independence, MO, report damage totals of $18 M and $ 7 M, respectively. Over the surrounding counties, Jackson County damages total $14 M, and Johnson and Wyandotte Counties losses together reach $17 M. Many other small communities report values ranging from $0.5 M to $2.6 M, so the storm total in this area of Missouri will exceed $60 M in public infrastructure damage. Unfortunately, this is a small proportion of the total losses suffered by the private sector. A complete account of the storm will be prepared for the MRCC Web site by mid-February.