November 8-14

Widespread Anomalous Warmth

Across the Midwest, the second week of November brought above-normal temperatures to the entire region. Almost every county in the Midwest observed above normal temperatures, and most of the region averaged 4-8°F above normal (Figure 1). In fact, the extent of above-normal daily temperatures was remarkable, with a large swath of the United States, from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Ocean, recording daily temperatures that were 5-10°F above normal (Figure 2). Every state in the Midwest reported an average temperature that was above normal for the week. Minnesota took first place for the largest departure from average, with an average temperature of 39.6°F, 9.2°F above normal. Iowa’s average temperature of 44.3°F was 7.1°F above normal, and Wisconsin came in at 40.4°F, 7°F above normal.

Minimum temperatures were generally above normal, especially for the southern and western Midwest. Parts of Minnesota observed average minimum temperatures at roughly 10°F above normal (Figure 3). Early in the week, however, the most anomalous minimum temperatures were in Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri. On November 8, both St. Louis and Evansville had the fourth warmest daily minimum temperature, with both cities recording 58°F. Paducah had its first warmest minimum temperature on November 8 at 65°F. By the end of the period, most records were being broken farther north. On November 13, Muskegon had its third warmest minimum temperature of 49°F. Kewaunee, Wisconsin tied its second warmest minimum temperature on the same day, with an observation of 42°F. Milan, Minnesota had its warmest daily minimum temperature for the date on November 14, with an observation of 49°F.

The second week in November was even more record breaking when considering maximum temperatures. Over 100 daily maximum temperatures records were broken November 8-14 (Figure 4). Parts of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky reported average maximum temperatures 10-12°F above normal (Figure 5). On November 8, the most anomalously warm temperatures were across the southern Midwest, which was generally on the south side of a lifting warm front (Figure 6). St. Louis, Columbia, Missouri, Springfield, Missouri, Bowling Green, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Terre Haute, Evansville, and Jackson, Kentucky were just some of the locales that either tied or set the record for highest maximum temperature on November 8. All the aforementioned sites observed temperatures that were over 20°F above normal. Temperatures were still anomalously warm in the upper 70s to 80 degrees on November 9, however less records were broken as a sharp cold front was actively moving through the region. For the final three days of the period, temperatures were very warm in Minnesota and Iowa, with La Crosse, Wisconsin recording its 4th warmest November 12 on record at 62°F. On November 14, a record high temperature of 66°F was observed in St. Paul.

Another Week, Another Precipitation Shortfall

The dry streak continued for much of the region. A large swath of the Midwest observed no measurable precipitation this past week. The most significant precipitation was observed in Michigan and the Greater Milwaukee area, and at best totals hovered between 0.75-1.25 inches (Figure 7). Another belt of precipitation was seen through Kentucky where totals hovered around 0.5 inches for the week. While most of this all fell as rain, there was some snow in the far northern reaches of the region. Isolated pockets of 3-4” of snow were reported in Minnesota’s Arrowhead region, as well as Michigan’s UP (Figure 8). The clipper that brought this snow also caused windy conditions across the lakes, forcing a reduction of the speed limit across the Mackinac Bridge.

It is imperative to note the extent of dry weather in the western Midwest. Iowa has been particularly low on precipitation totals. As of November 14, Des Moines had not had any precipitation for at least 14 days, which last occurred in February 2021. Similarly, Waterloo also had no precipitation since October 31, the longest stretch since November 2021. As a result of continued dry weather, the National Weather Service in Des Moines issued a bulletin regarding elevated fire weather conditions.

The lack of precipitation in parts of the Midwest also means drought persisted, especially across Iowa, where drought has continued in some capacity since the summer of 2020. That is the longest on record for the Hawkeye State since drought monitoring began in 2000. Even concerning extreme drought (D3), some point in the state has been experiencing extreme drought since June 2022. In fact, drought did not improve over the past week for Iowa, and both severe (D2) and extreme drought were slightly expanded.

Drought also expanded elsewhere across the Midwest through the second week of the month (Figure 9). Kentucky saw significant expansion of moderate (D1) to severe drought across the southern and eastern parts of the state. Some moderate drought was also expanded through southern Illinois. There were little to no changes across the Upper Midwest, where both rain and snow were slightly more plentiful.