Nov 1-7, 2023

Below-Average to Start, Above-Average By Week’s End

The first week of November started off with well below normal temperatures for much of the Midwest. In the wake of a strong Halloween cold front, average temperatures remained 5-10°F below normal (Figure 1). This was short-lived, as temperatures rose through the end of the week. For the final four days of the week, the average temperature was as much as 10-12°F above normal in Missouri and Illinois (Figure 2). Most of the Midwest observed temperatures 4-8°F above normal, with the exception of far northern Minnesota, where the temperature remained 3-5°F below normal.

The pattern was similar with minimum temperatures. The first three days of the period were characterized by very below normal minimum temperatures. Much of the southern Midwest, from Missouri through Illinois, southern Indiana, and Kentucky, observed minimum temperatures as much as 13-16°F below normal (Figure 3). Minimum temperature records were broken in every state on November 1. This included Washington, Indiana, where a minimum temperature of 24°F tied the previous record; Springfield, Illinois, where a minimum temperature of 21°F also tied the previous record; and Burlington, Iowa, where a temperature of 20°F was the coldest on record for November 1. By November 4, minimum temperatures were back to near or slightly above normal for most of the region (Figure 4). In fact, on November 6, record high minimum temperature records were being observed in spots. Kenosha, Wisconsin reported a minimum temperature of 51°F on November 6, the first warmest for that date. St. Louis Lambert Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 58°F, which tied the previous record for November 6.

Maximum temperatures were slightly below normal to start. Most states observed average maximum temperatures that were 4-8°F below normal early in the week (Figure 5). Temperatures were still quite cold on November 1. Kenosha only reached 39°F on November 1, which tied the previous record low maximum temperature. Despite the cold start, temperatures warmed fast, and the rest of the week brought temperatures that were 10-15°F above normal (Figure 6). Maximum temperatures were in the mid-upper 60s in Iowa and southern Minnesota on November 5, which are generally 15-20°F above normal. On November 6, a warm front lifted across the region, and temperatures skyrocketed into the 70s, almost 20°F above normal for many spots. In Rockville, Indiana, a temperature of 77°F tied the previous record for November 6. In Evansville, the previous record of 78°F was also tied. Paducah had its warmest November 6 on record with a temperature of 78°F. Temperatures in the 70s reached as far north as Milwaukee, where a maximum temperature of 70°F was the second warmest on record.

Lackluster Precipitation, Drought Persists

October ended with winter precipitation, but November started with very little precipitation in sight. A lot of the Midwest didn’t observe any precipitation during the week, with the most precipitation concentrated across the far northern tier of the region (Figure 7). The extent of liquid precipitation was limited to the end of the week when temperatures warmed and a frontal system pushed a line of strong thunderstorms through the Upper Midwest. On November 6, locations across Michigan reported anywhere from 0.01 inches of precipitation in southwestern parts of the state, to nearly 1.5 inches in the UP (Figure 8).

Despite the warmer temperature to end the week, not all precipitation fell as rain. Accumulating snow fell across the Great Lakes states, with upward of 2-4 inches in lakeside locations (Figure 9). Chardon, Ohio, located just east of Cleveland, recorded 3.3 inches on November 1. A record daily snowfall of 4 inches was reported in Holland, Michigan on November 1. Appleton, Wisconsin received 4.5 inches of snow on November 1, also a record snowfall. The previously mentioned storm system that brought generally rain to most of Michigan did indeed produce lake effect snow on the back end. There was over 2 inches of snow in isolated spots across Michigan’s UP (Figure 10). The NWS Marquette office reported 2.6 inches of snow on November 7, which was a record for that station.

Thanks to a lack of rain, drought persisted, and even expanded slightly in certain categories. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) largely remained unchanged, but moderate drought (D1) did grow in coverage slightly, from 32.66 on October 31 to 34.80 percent on November 7 (Figure 11). The largest expansion of drought was in Kentucky, where 40 percent of the state is in D1 compared to 23.90 percent just the week prior. In St. Clair County, Missouri, 60 percent of the county was in extreme drought (D3) on October 31, but rains in the area helped bring that down to 7.57 percent by November 7.