March 8-14, 2015
Midwest Weekly Highlights - March 8-14, 2015
Above Normal Temperature Melt Winter Away
Well above normal temperatures moved into the Midwest this week, ending a brutally cold stretch of below normal and often below zero temperatures
(Figure 1). Temperatures were the most moderate in the Ohio Valley, being anywhere between 3-8 degrees above normal. Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and northern Missouri all saw temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal, while western Minnesota had temperatures around 20 degrees above normal. Average high temperatures this week were around 20 degrees warmer throughout most of the region (Figure 2) compared to just one week ago
(Figure 3). These warm temperatures caused most of the snow pack to melt over the Midwest (Figure 4).
Wet South, Dry North
Yet another week of excess precipitation fell in the southern half of the region this week. Between 2-4 inches of rain fell across most of the Ohio Valley
(Figure 5). This led to departures of nearly 2 inches more than normal precipitation along the western parts of the Ohio River (Figure 6). Flooding concerns reached a crest this week as areas along the western half of the Ohio River have now seen 3-5 inches more than normal precipitation since the start of February
(Figure 7). Meanwhile, the northern half of the Midwest had little to no precipitation over the week. Some light snow fell across the northern reaches of Minnesota as well as some light lake effect snows in the U.P. of Michigan (Figure 8). This isn’t great news for farmers in the northern half of the Midwest as less than normal precipitation fell across that part of the region this winter
(Figure 9).
A Week of Floods
With heavy rain and snow affecting most of the southern half of the region in February and above normal temperatures melting the remaining snow this week, flooding became a major concern this week in the Ohio River Valley. Above normal precipitation this week from multiple heavy rain storms on March 10-11 (Figure 10) and March 13-14 (Figure 11), only furthered flooding concerns in the Ohio Valley. Throughout most of the week, the Ohio River was under a flood warning from the Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia tri-state area to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Ohio River at Cincinnati crested early on March 15 at 57.72 feet (Figure 12), which was the first time the river was over 57 feet at the city since 1996. The Wabash River in Indiana was also under a flood warning from Lafayette to the mouth of the Ohio River. These rivers and creeks were also under a flood warning at some point during the week:
White River (IN), Stoner Creek (KY), Licking River (KY), Kentucky River (KY), Rolling Fork River (KY), Rough River (KY), Green River (KY), Muscatatuck River (IN),Little Wabash River (IL), Mississippi River at the Ohio River and south (MO, IL), Illinois (IL), Scioto River (OH), Killbuck Creek (OH), Eagle Creek (OH), Tiffin River (OH), Kankakee River (IN), Skillet Fork River (IL), Embarras River (IL), Maumee River (OH), Black River (MO), and Big Muddy River (IL).
Fortunately, below normal precipitation is expected in the near future for most of the Midwest
(Figure 13). However, this isn’t welcome news for Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Abnormally Dry Conditions Expand In Wisconsin
The National Drought Mitigation Center added more area into the abnormally dry category, mainly in Wisconsin and northern Iowa (Figure 14). Frozen soils have mitigated some of the below normal precipitation these areas have received over the winter as seen in the departures since December 1, 2014 (Figure 9). However, continued below normal precipitation could bring these areas into moderate drought conditions. Moderate drought conditions in western Minnesota continue to hold the status quo, but it should be noted that continued below normal precipitation could cause drought to worsen as spring moves along. All drought concerns have been washed away for Kentucky as the commonwealth has seen 2 or more inches of precipitation above normal since February 1 (Figure 7).
-BJP-