November 8-14, 2003
Midwest Weekly Highlights - November 8-14, 2003
Windy Week in the Midwest
The week of November 8 to 14 marked a shift to windy and colder conditions, but with the familiar pattern of dryness in the western Midwest and wetness in the eastern Midwest. Precipitation totals for the week exceeded 1-2 inches in the Ohio River Valley and Kentucky, and were quite abundant in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (Figure 1). Unfortunately, most of the western half of the Midwest received less than 25% of normal precipitation (Figure 2), with totals under a quarter inch common. Some of the northern precipitation came as snow (Figure 3), although there was sufficient warmth for rain in the UP of Michigan during the major precipitation event of the week. The northern and central portions of the Midwest were 2-4°F below normal in temperature, and the southern tier was near normal to 2°F above normal in temperature (Figure 4). The pattern of temperature were smoothed somewhat by the seasonal weather patterns than made much of the Midwest cold, warm, and then cold again during the week. The abnormally dry status was finally removed from central Michigan with the latest US Drought Monitor, but some areas of northwestern Missouri were returned to extreme drought due to consideration of the long term water deficit over the last two years (Figure 5, National Drought Mitigation Center). This water deficit is commonly more than 12 inches, and can reach up to 20 inches in that area. Extreme drought also expanded in south central Minnesota and north central Iowa in response to the continuing lack of precipitation.
The Calm Before the Storm
The weather at the beginning of the week was dominated by a strong high pressure center from Canada that brought record cold conditions to the region on the morning of November 9. Much of northern Minnesota and parts of northern Wisconsin reached sub-zero temperatures (Figure 6). Many locations in the region set new record lows, including Madison, Merrill, Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Wausau, and Green Bay, WI; Alpena, Muskegon, and Grand Rapids, MI; and Waterloo, IA. After the 9th, though, the high pressure center drifted off to the east, opening the Midwest to a return flow of warmer, moister air from the south.
A Mighty Wind Storm
A low pressure center entered the northern Midwest on the 11th and moved westward across the Great Lakes through the 12th. Heavy fog afflicted much of the central Midwest on the morning of the 12th, causing substantial delays at O'Hare Airport in Chicago and even delaying the start time or closing schools in southern Michigan. The low underwent a period of rapid intensification as it traveled east under favorable upper air support. The Storm Prediction Center took the unusual step (for the time of year) of declaring a moderate risk for severe weather in the eastern great Lakes area (Figure 7, SPC), and in the afternoon placed severe thunderstorm and tornado watch boxes in this area. Isolated storms developed ahead of a strong cold front (Figure 8, NWS), but these storms did not become numerous. Instead, much of the moisture for these northern storms was cut off by a strong line of severe thunderstorms in Kentucky (Figure 9, NWS). Severe weather reports were split between the original severe weather watch areas in Michigan and Ohio, and the emerging line in Kentucky (Figure 10, SPC). Minor structural damage was associated with some of the severe wind events, and there were three tornadoes that produced more substantial damage. An F2 tornado hit downtown Wooster, OH, before moving across open ground. A large Rubbermaid manufacturing plant was heavily damaged, injuring 7 workers. More than three dozen houses and a dozen businesses were moderately to severely damaged. Initial damage estimates for Woorster alone exceed $15 million. An F1 tornado in Lexington Township, OH, damaged a school and several residences. Finally, an F1 tornado destroyed some grain bins and pushed a manufactured home of its foundation in Akron Township, MI. Serious flash flooding occurred in isolated areas from central Kentucky and southern Ohio to West Virginia, such as along the Beech Fork in Bardstown, KY (Figure 11, USGS). Both Lexington and Louisville, KY, set new single day precipitation records for November 12.
The most destructive aspect of the storm turned out to be the straight line winds blowing around the intense low pressure center. The sea level pressure deepening of the storm exceeded 30 mb in 36 hours; as the pressure lowered in the cyclone, the pressure gradients and winds increased between it and a strong high in the Great Plains. Even when the low pressure center was at 996 mb, pressure gradients were tremendous over the western and central Midwest (Figure 12, College of DuPage). Wind gusts at this time were exceeding 40 knots over an area covering several states (Figure 13, COD). As the peak of winds passed a location, gusts of wind over 60 mph were common in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the northern parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The fastest gusts (in mph) noted in National Weather Service statements were 62 in northwest Illinois, 68 in northwest Indiana, 61 in eastern Iowa, 84 in southwestern Michigan, 65 in south-central Minnesota, 61 in northeastern Ohio, and 78 in northeastern Wisconsin. Many peak gust reports exceeded the severe wind threshold of 58 mph. Widespread damage to buildings, trees, and the electrical infrastructure took place in the region, with major power outages in northern Illinois (140,000 customers), Ohio (375,000 customers), and Michigan (330,000 customers) and minor outages elsewhere. Waves 12-15 feet in height crashed against the eastern shore of Lake Michigan due to the westerly fetch and high winds driving the water. Minor shore erosion was evident. A woman in Iowa was injured when a strong gust pulled her out of her doorway as she opened the door to check for her mail. In Milwaukee, an 8-story tall crane was rammed into a building, shattering windows but causing no injuries. Finally, a bank robbery was foiled by the wind in Milwaukee; as the robber tried to secure currency in his pockets, a gust of wind blew most of the bills away. The bills were recovered after the arrest. The storm continued to the northeast, bringing similar high wind conditions to the population centers of the eastern U.S. The number of customers without power from the Midwest to the East peaked at 1.4 million, making this a very memorable event.
The day after the storm left the region, the 13th, brought in a large flux of cold air over the Great Lakes, generating a widespread lake effect snow event in Michigan and northern Ohio. Both radar (Figure 14, NWS) and satellite (Figure 15, COD) imagery display the distinctive cloud streets of lake-effect bands oriented in the direction of the wind. The combination of moderate snow and continued high winds led to blizzard warnings over much of northern Michigan, and more widespread power outages on the 13th. Marquette, MI, tied their daily record for snow fall, 4 inches, and similar amounts were widespread in the UP of Michigan, northern Lower Michigan, and northeastern Ohio. The high wind conditions continued to impact the northern and eastern edges of the region into the 14th, when the last of the lake effect faded in northeastern Ohio. At the end of the period, moisture returned to the southwestern Midwest around the back side of the high pressure center moving into the southeastern U.S., bringing warmer conditions and light rain to the region ahead of the next low pressure system.