Midwest Overview - February, 2003

Winter intensified during February, with cooler than normal and wetter than normal conditions bringing welcome relief to the snow drought in parts of central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and much of Michigan. The heaviest precipitation occurred in the southern and eastern Midwest, with more than 2.5 inches in a band from southwestern Missouri to Ohio (Figure 1). Kentucky averaged more than 6 inches of rain statewide, and had its 11^th wettest February since 1895. Unfortunately, dryness persisted in the core of the drought area in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, where less than 50% of normal precipitation fell (Figure 2). It was also quite dry in northern Minnesota, where the snow drought was not relieved; less than 5 inches of snow fell over most of this area. Several storms laid down a heavy band of snow through the south-central Midwest, exceeding normal February snowfall by 10-15 inches in places (Figure 3). Lake effect snow brought generous amounts of snow to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and some areas east of Lake Michigan. Temperatures were below normal throughout the Midwest, generally in the -4 to -7°F range (Figure 4). Despite increased precipitation compared to recent month, much of it still missed the driest zones. Drought ratings intensified in the band from Missouri to south-central Michigan during February (Figure 5, National Drought Mitigation Center). The tendency for drought to persist, along with the previous history of dryness in the spring following an El Niño event, led the Climate Prediction Center to anticipate deepening drought in the Midwest in the coming months (Figure 6, CPC).