Midwest Overview - January 8-14, 2003

The week of January 8-14 started with a continuation of the early January warmth in the Midwest. This warm spell ended abruptly on the 9th with the approach of the first of two cold fronts that returned seasonal temperatures. Unfortunately, the fronts and an accompanying low pressure center did not bring much precipitation to the region, and the southwestern third of the region received no precipitation at all (Figure 1). Only the Upper Peninsula of Michigan received above normal amounts of precipitation (Figure 1a), due to a return of the lake effect snows to the area after the second front passed. Some locations received more than a foot of snow during the week (Figure 2), and snow depths on the ground exceeded a foot when combined with previous snow fall. Elsewhere, much of the typical snow and lake ice cover was missing still at the end of the period, and concerns were raised about Great Lakes levels continuing to decline during the rest of winter, especially in the Lake Michigan-Huron system that is already 19 inches below normal. The western and northern Midwest averaged to be 4-8°F above normal for January 8-14 (Figure 3), despite cooler than normal conditions at the end of the period. Finally, drought continued to intensify slowly in the western Midwest (Figure 4, National Drought Mitigation Center). Drought in the eastern Midwest was not reduced by recent lake effect snows, which have only provided near-normal levels of moisture and have not made up for previous deficits.

On January 8, all temperature reporting stations in the 9-state Midwest region that were received by the MRCC in real time indicated above freezing maximum temperatures (Figure 5). In Minnesota, all the station reports received so far indicated a maximum temperature of 40°F of greater, even in the far northern reaches of the state. The daily maximum temperatures were 35-40°F above normal over much of Minnesota and Iowa (Figure 6). In Iowa, 13 first and second order stations set new record maximum temperatures on the 8th, and Des Moines achieved the highest maximum temperature ever in January of 67°F. Western and northern Missouri had 7 first and second order stations that exceeded record temperature levels, including 73°F in St. Joseph. More than 30 cooperative observing sites with long records in Minnesota set new temperature records on the 8th, as well as major first order stations from Rochester to Minneapolis to International Falls. Eight places in Wisconsin also set records, including La Crosse, Madison, and Green Bay. Finally, Marquette, Sault Ste Marie, and Traverse City in northern Michigan also set new high temperature records for the date.

The combination of warmth and low precipitation has caused the Mississippi River to reach dangerously low levels from St. Louis, MO, to Cairo, IL, where limits have been placed on the draft and number of barges allowed in each tow. The Mississippi River at St. Louis is at a gauge height of more than 4 feet less than the preferred zero level for the river (Figure 7), U.S. Geological Survey), leaving just over 8 feet of draft in some places. This is the lowest this stretch of the river has been since 1989. The lack of snow in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and parts of Michigan are not only adversely impacted recreation, but is also triggering inappropriate responses by ice fisherman and snow mobile riders to the present return to seasonably cold conditions. In Michigan, 8 people have died in just the past week driving snowmobiles on partially frozen lakes where there was not enough snow on the ground to allow for their recreation of choice. It does appear that temperatures will be more seasonably cold in the near term, hopefully reducing these hazards day-by-day.