Above-Normal Temperatures

Mean temperatures were well above normal to start October. Much of the region was at least 10°F above normal for the week (Figure 1). Temperatures were slightly less anomalous to the south and east near the Ohio River, though they were still 7-10°F above normal. October 2-4 was the second-warmest three-day period in October on record for several locations in Minnesota, including Duluth, St. Cloud, and the Twin Cities.

Minimum temperatures were similarly anomalous, with parts of the Upper Midwest nearly 15°F above normal for the week (Figure 2). Anomalies were lower heading to the south and east with minimum temperatures 3-6°F below normal across eastern Kentucky and eastern Ohio. Most of the region was near 10°F above normal for the week. In Minnesota’s Twin Cities, a minimum temperature of 72°F was observed on October 4. This tied the record for the warmest minimum temperature observed in the Twin Cities in October, which was previously set in 2005.

Maximum temperatures were generally 10-15°F above normal (Figure 3). Along and south of the Ohio River, temperatures were 5-10°F above normal. In Green Bay, Wisconsin, the maximum temperatures were above 80°F for four consecutive days, October 2-5, which was tied for the longest stretch of 80°F in October with five other years since 1886. Green Bay also observed a temperature of 88°F on October 3, which tied the record for the warmest temperature ever recorded in October since 1886. On Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (UP), a station in Houghton with records dating back to 1887 observed a maximum temperature of 87°F, which was the warmest October temperature there on record.

Precipitation/Drought

Precipitation was scattered and minimal. Precipitation was above normal in southwestern Iowa and a portion of Kentucky near Louisville (Figure 4). Elsewhere, precipitation was below normal, with most of Missouri and Minnesota receiving no measurable precipitation.

The lack of widespread precipitation exacerbated drought across the region. While the aforementioned rainfall in Iowa and near Louisville erased dry conditions in those areas, much of the region’s mid-section saw an expansion of drought. As of October 7, over 75 percent of the region was considered D0 (abnormally dry) (Figure 5). Just over 38 percent of the region was considered D1 (moderate drought), while 12 percent of the region observed D2 (severe drought). Just over 1 percent of the Midwest is now experiencing D3 (extreme drought). For the first time since 2023, D3 was introduced in Illinois.