January 8-14, 2023

Turning Winter-Like as Temperatures Start Dipping

Average temperatures for the week varied from 3-6°F above normal in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, to over 10°F below normal in western parts of the region (Figure 1). In Wisconsin, the state with the most anomalous warmth, the average temperature was 9.7°F above normal. This was followed by Michigan and Ohio, at 7.9°F and 6.7°F above normal, respectively. On the opposite end of the spectrum were Iowa, and Missouri, which were 2.6°F and 2.1°F below normal, respectively. This was the first week since meteorological winter began that any state in the Midwest recorded a statewide average temperature that was below normal.

Minimum temperatures were similarly anomalous. In Wisconsin and Michigan, some areas averaged minimum temperatures 10-15°F above normal (Figure 2). In western Minnesota, western Iowa, and western Missouri, minimum temperatures were generally below normal. These anomalies were due to the fact that the cold front that brought the coldest air of the season only just arrived in Minnesota and Iowa on January 11 (Figure 3). Ahead of the cold front, on January 9, record high minimums were set in Michigan, specifically Alpena, where a temperature of 31°F tied the previous record. By January 13, record low temperatures had entered the region. In Kansas City, the temperature dropped to -11°F, which was the third coldest on record in 136 years of recordkeeping. Primghar, Iowa set a new record low minimum temperature on January 13, with an observation of -20°F, almost 30°F below normal. In Chicago, the temperature dipped below 0°F for 37 hours starting on the 14th, which was the longest since 2014.

Maximum temperatures were overall much more below normal. In Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri, many areas observed average maximum temperatures 10-13°F below normal (Figure 4). In western Minnesota, the average maximum temperature for the week was generally below 10°F (Figure 5). For that area of Minnesota, maximum temperatures generally hover between 20-25°F, which is where they were on January 8. This continued through mid-week, until January 12, when the cold front had passed. Artichoke Lake, an observation site in Big Stone County, Minnesota, recorded a maximum temperature of 1°F on January 12, a tie for the 10th coldest on record. In Cherokee, Iowa, a temperature of -3°F was the coldest maximum on record for January 13 in over 100 years of records. Daily records also fell in Kansas City, Missouri; Kirksville, Missouri; Osceola, Iowa; and Pocahontas, Iowa, most of which saw maximum temperatures between -5-10°F.

Wind chills were really noteworthy. St. Joseph, Missouri recorded wind chills below -30°F for two days in a row, January 13-14, which was only the 4th time since records began in 1944. In Des Moines, Iowa, wind chills reached -40°F or lower two days in a row—January 13-14—for the 7th time since records began in 1948. In Lamoni, Iowa, wind chills fell below -40°F, only the fourth winter that this has occurred since records began in 1973.

Reigning in the Precipitation

The only place that got caught in a slight precipitation deficit was northwestern Minnesota and most of Minnesota, where precipitation was 50-80 percent of normal (Figure 6). Otherwise, most of the region averaged precipitation well over 200-300 percent of normal. A swath of 3-4 inches of rain fell right along the Ohio River in Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois and southeast Missouri (Figure 7). In most of the region, total precipitation was 1-3 inches for the week.

Most of this fell toward the end of the period, and it wasn’t all in the form of rain. There was significant snowfall associated with this system across the region. In Iowa, some spots reported a foot of snow, specifically in the southeast part of the state, between Davenport and Ottumwa. Since winds were at times reaching 50 MPH, any snow was also being blown around, causing extremely low visibility across the state. In Waterloo, Iowa, a record 5-day snowfall total of 23.9 inches shattered the old 5-day snowfall record of 16 inches. In Moline, Illinois, 15.4 inches of snow fell on January 12, which was the 2nd highest daily total on record and only the third time over 15 inches of snow fell in a single day. The same storm brought almost a foot of snow to some of Chicago’s outer exurbs, specifically between Waukegan, Dekalb and Rockford.

Drought Improvements For Many

After weeks of largely dry conditions—and continued gradual worsening of drought—relief came to many across the region thanks to increased precipitation. One category improvements were made across much of the lower Midwest, specifically in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Illinois and parts of Missouri (Figure 8). Much of the Ohio Valley was in D1 (moderate drought), with parts of southern Indiana, southern Illinois and Kentucky being removed from D2 (severe drought). Even in Iowa, where D3 (extreme drought) has persisted for over a year now, improvement was made in the southeastern part of the state. Drought conditions persisted across the Upper Midwest, which did not see as much precipitation as more southerly parts of the region. Healthy rains allowed some rivers to recover from lower levels, but freezing temperatures induced ice jams. One ice jam in the Kankakee River sent water into neighborhoods in the Chicago suburb of Wilmington. The Kankakee River at Wilmington was expected to rapidly rise heading into the middle of January, peaking at 13.15 feet, which is considered major flood stage and just 0.8 feet short of the all-time record (Figure 9).