November 22-30, 2023

Ending November Below Normal

After some record warmth earlier in the month, winter arrived across the Midwest just in time for the end of meteorological fall. Overall, daily temperatures averaged 5-8°F below normal (Figure 1). Average temperature departures by state ranged from 4.4°F below normal in Ohio to 0.2°F below normal in Minnesota. This was standard across the region, with no widespread areas of above normal temperatures.

The cold air that characterized the region during the final week of the month had two components. The first was a system that moved through the region around Thanksgiving (Figure 2). This brought temperatures to below normal. However, it was a reinforcing shot of cold air from another cold front on November 27 that brought the coldest air of the season so far (Figure 3). Minimum temperatures averaging 10-13°F below normal were observed across the region November 26-29 (Figure 4). Lafayette, Indiana had a daily minimum temperature of 17°F on November 28, 12°F below normal and tied for the fifth coldest on record. Terre Haute, Indiana had its third coldest minimum temperature on record on November 28, with an observation of 16°F. Midland, Michigan had a minimum temperature of 13°F on November 28, which was tied for the first coldest on record.

Maximum temperatures were also below normal for most of the period (Figure 5). Due to the aforementioned Thanksgiving low pressure system, temperatures dropped just in time for the holiday weekend. By November 25, records were already being broken, with a maximum temperature of 35°F in Kansas City, Missouri, which was tied for the third coldest on record. However, temperatures dropped even more in the coming days, with maximum temperatures generally 10-15°F below normal in much of the region (Figure 6). On November 27, Kewanee, Illinois had a maximum temperature of 23°F, which was 20°F below normal for the date and tied for the coldest on record. Williamsburg, Iowa only reached 21°F, which was 21°F below normal and the coldest on record. Burlington, Iowa reached only 26°F, which tied the observation for the third coldest on record. Temperatures had not recovered much by the next day. Kenosha, Wisconsin had its fifth coldest maximum temperature on record on November 28, with a temperature of 25°F. South Bend, Indiana also tied for the fifth coldest maximum temperature on record, with an observation of 24°F. Even in the far southern reaches of the region, Jackson, Kentucky had a maximum temperature of only 35°F, which was 18°F below normal and the third coldest on record.

Low Rain Totals, Higher Snow Totals

Precipitation was not plentiful during the period. At most, parts of Michigan, eastern Ohio, and eastern Kentucky saw up to an inch in total precipitation (Figure 7). Moving westward through the region, precipitation totals decreased. Minnesota observed 0.05 inches of precipitation or less across most of the state.

The story doesn’t end there. A look at the bigger picture shows most of the region’s precipitation fell as snow. A large swath of the region observed measurable snowfall. In fact, 2-3 inches of snow was measured in places as far south as Kansas City, while spots further north, like Minneapolis, ended the period with less than an inch (Figure 8). Parts of northern Missouri and southern Iowa recorded almost 6 inches of snow. The same event triggered lake effect snow in places further north and east, with roughly a foot or more of lake effect snow in isolated spots (Figure 9). Parts of Greater Cleveland saw over 6 inches of snow, particularly in the suburbs east of the city. This event caused a multi-vehicle pileup near the I-77 interchange in Richfield, Ohio. In total, over two dozen snowfall records were set across the Midwest, from Missouri to the Great Lakes (Figure 10).

Drought Persists and Expands, Again

A lack of appreciable rain yet again prompted the expansion of drought across the region. D1 (moderate drought) saw the largest expansion over the prior week, with slight increases in Missouri and southern Illinois (Figure 11). Elsewhere, only slight changes were observed, and the D3 (extreme drought) that has covered eastern Iowa persisted. Black Hawk County, Iowa, has observed D0 conditions (abnormally dry) since August 2022, and 90% of the county has been under extreme drought since August 2023.

Since winter months average less precipitation across the region than summer months, prospects are not good for drought into the winter, which has ripple effects across other industries. After some slight improvement earlier in the season, river levels were heading downward again at the end of the week. By November 29, the Mississippi River water level at Caruthersville, Missouri was dropping again after a brief period of rising water levels. The forecast has the river continuing to drop significantly into December (Figure 12). This has the potential to affect the movement of corn and soybeans down the Mississippi River over the coming months.